First, the findings:

  • 57% of developers said they are not satisfied with their profits on Android.
  • 90% of developers reported individual app downloads of 10,000 or under on Android.
  • 52% of Android developers’ apps were downloaded fewer than 5,000 times.
  • Developers are concerned that Google Checkout contributes to their low download volumes.  43% feel that they would sell more apps if Android used a carrier billing or another simpler billing system.
  • 82% of those surveyed feel that the design of the Android Marketplace makes it difficult for apps to be noticed.
  • 68% of those surveyed are somewhat or not likely to put further work into their apps, compared to when they first released their app.

Now, I’ve read enough of www.FiveThirtyEight.com to know when polling numbers are fishy, and let me tell you, something smells ripe.  Here’s what I’m talking about:

  1. Tiny sample size. Only 30 respondents to a survey, so the “margin of error” is probably wacky high (probably why they didn’t include it).
  2. Also not mentioned in the survey, how they found these people or how they were surveyed. Banner ads claiming you’ll win an iPod by filling out the survey? Spam campaign? We’ve all filled out surveys where we just randomly clicked radio buttons…no telling how credible any of responses are.
  3. Push polling? Ask a question like, “Does the Design of the Marketplace Make Your App go Unnoticed?” and of course you’re going to get a pile of people answering yes. It’s kinda like asking, “Do you wish it was easier to market your business?” Discoverability could be the most important problem for mobile developers to solve, but asking slanted questions isn’t going to provide much new info. Much better to ask, “How satisfied are you with Android users’ ability to discover your app through Marketplace?”
  4. No comparison with developing on iPhone. If you’re considering whether or not to jump into mobile development, perhaps “57% of developers are not satisfied with their profits on Android” is interesting. But much more interesting would be to compare those satisfaction numbers with developing on the iPhone.Making money on mobile apps is hard, no matter what platform you’re writing for, we know that. What we don’t know is whether it’s better to write for Android versus iPhone. We’ve got theories of course, but this survey would be a lot more useful if we could do a little more Apples to Apples comparison.

Alright, so complaints aside, this is nominally interesting data that confirms our suspicions and if its authors compiled it with no ulterior motives, I appreciate them going to the trouble. Still, there’s enough that’s sketchy about this survey that I’d take it with a grain of salt and wouldn’t think twice about disregarding it if/when better data comes out.

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